A speculation is gaining momentum as to who will be the Prime Ministerial candidate for India in 2014 election – Narendra Modi of BJP vs. Rahul Gandhi of Congress. News channels have already indulged in hosting analysis on the next prime ministerial candidate on their primetime shows to catch higher TRPs. After a spate of political muddling, the battle of politics has now zeroed down to the Youth Leaders to take the centre stage in order to provide the country with the zing of next generation leadership. Moreover, the Gujarat Chief Minister is in news of late on account of his token three-day Sadbhavana fast for the peace and development of the state.
Modi has been instrumental in Gujarat’s development since last many years. He has been credited with attracting investment opportunities worth thousands of crores through his initiative of Vibrant Gujarat investment summit, which has been dubbed as the deal-making jamboree of India largely attracting corporate groups to pledge staggering investments.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to wear a skull cap, offered by a Muslim cleric, during his fast may have taken some sheen off his celebrated exercise, but the Congress has surprisingly been wary of attacking him on this issue. Except Congress spokesperson Renuka Choudhary’s childish & casual remark — Modi doosron ko topi pehnate hain — party leaders have refrained from raking up this issue. As per the assessment of ruling party strategists, an attack on Modi over skull cap issue could result in “consolidation of the majority community” in his favour. Convinced that Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s maut-ka-saudagar remark had backfired in the last election, Congressmen are no more willing to play any ‘minority card’ against Gujarat CM.
As the debate on potential prime ministerial contenders for the 2014 elections picks up in India, a US Congressional report says it might just turn out to be a direct contest between controversial Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
A report on India by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a bipartisan and independent research wing of the US Congress, finds Modi a strong prime ministerial candidate for the opposition BJP in 2014, while at the same time discussing the prospect of the Congress putting up Rahul Gandhi for the position
Controversial Chief Minister Narendra Modi has streamlined economic processes
The United States Congressional Research Service (CRS) reports mentions on page 47, “Perhaps India’s best example of effective governance and impressive development is found in Gujarat (pop. 60 million), where controversial Chief Minister Narendra Modi has streamlined economic processes, removing red tape and curtailing corruption in ways that have made the state a key driver of national economic growth. Seeking to overcome the taint of his alleged complicity in deadly 2002 anti-Muslim riots, Modi has overseen heavy investment in modern roads and power infrastructure, and annual growth of more than 11% in recent years. The state has attracted major international investors such as (Ford), General Motors and Mitsubishi and, with only 5% of the country’s population, Gujarat now accounts for more than one-fifth of India’s exports.
Another positive example in 2011 has been Bihar (pop. 104 million), one of India’s poorest states, where Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has won national attention through his considerable success in emphasizing good governance over caste-based politics; he is credited with restoring law and order across much of the state, as well as overseeing infrastructure and educational improvements of direct benefit to common citizens projects. Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) party, in alliance with the main national opposition BJP, won an overwhelming reelection majority in November 2010 state elections.
The examples set in by Chief Ministers Modi and Kumar may have inspired the popular leader of India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh (pop. 200 million). Chief Minister Mayawati, who is widely believed to maintain national political ambitions and was at the forefront of a nascent “Third Front” in 2009, has shifted her own focus much more toward infrastructure projects such as road-building and improving the state’s poor energy grid.” (CRS: page 48)
However, the report which gives a detailed account of international political dimensions of India, does not clearly state it would be a Modi vs Gandhi affair in 2014. Brief and separate references made to Gandhi and Nehru in the CRS's 98-page report titled "India: Domestic Issues, Strategic Dynamics, and U.S. Relations" have been used by sections of the Indian media to suggest as if some elements of the US official establishment expect the 2014 elections in the country to be a direct battle between the two politicians.
Nowhere in the report is there contention, speculation or projection that the 2014 parliamentary election will be between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. Gandhi and Modi have been mentioned in two different places and in two different contexts, contrary to the impression they have been clubbed together as some of the Indian media reports create.
The reference to Modi's prime ministerial prospects on page 41 says, "At present, the BJP president is Nitin Gadkari, a former Maharashtran official known for his avid support of privatization. Although still in some disorder in 2011, there are signs that the BJP has made changes necessary to be a formidable challenger in scheduled 2014 polls. These include a more effective branding of the party as one focused on development and good governance rather than emotive, Hindutva-related issues, and Gadkari's success at quelling intra-party dissidence and, by some accounts, showing superior strategizing and organizing skills as compared to his predecessors.”
But an important mention in the CRS report is on its page 47 with reference to June 29, 2011 article by Reuters – “Rahul Gandhi: A Leader in Waiting for World’s Largest Democracy,” Which says, “Meanwhile, Congress President Gandhi is suffering from an unknown illness, and in early August virtually disappeared from India’s political stage, having left the country for surgery at an undisclosed U.S. hospital. Moreover, as key Congress figures express support for the future leadership role of Sonia Gandhi’s youthful son, parliamentarian Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh’s political authority is correspondingly undermined. The 2009 polls may have represented a coming out party of sorts for the younger Gandhi, who many expect to be put forward as Congress’s prime ministerial candidate in scheduled 2014 elections. Yet this heir-apparent remains dogged by questions about his abilities to lead the party, given a mixed record as an election strategist, uneasy style in public appearances, and reputation for gaffes.”
Trouble is at hand for Congress. End of Dynasty Raj is eminent
Without saying so, the American establishment is veering round to the view that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not return to power in the next elections to be held in 2014 or earlier. Rahul Gandhi has been given the gentle thumbs down in any potential 2014 contest with Narendra Modi irrespective of whether it happens. But, when the American establishment privileges the opposition over the ruling dispensation, trouble is at hand for Congress. End of Dynasty Raj is eminent.
The Congress crisis is rooted in three things: corruption, price rise, and the worsening security situation. No terrorist attack since 26/11 has been solved. Corruption, however, is the biggest killer. Anna Hazare has focused on this issue brilliantly. In a sense everything boils down to corruption, from a minister who rigs his election, to an environment of tolerance created for food hoarders, to an inspector on the coast who with corrupt impunity permits the landing of explosives, which are then used for terrorist attacks.
When Rahul Gandhi and Chidambaram faced angry relatives of the recent Delhi bomb blast victims at a hospital, the searing cry of hurt and outrage said: You can’t control corruption, and you can’t give us security. Why have you come?
Badly for the Congress, the opposition is capitalising on the anti-corruption wave sweeping the country. Bihar is punishing corrupt bureaucrats and Madhya Pradesh will follow suit. Damned by the lokayukta, BS Yeddyurappa had to go. Blamed from all quarters, Congress Chief Minister and Minister for Mining for Twelve years Digambar Kamat dogged with Mining Scams, still occupies the chair, has increase the problem manifold. P. Chidambaram, can face a a CBI inquiry, Court trial and ultimately imprisonment anytime soon.. The latest is the Central Bureau of Investigation’s desperate attempts to stall the investigation into Chidambaram’s role in the 2G spectrum scam, as legally demanded by Subramanian Swamy. But the Centre resists fighting corruption. Venerable institutions like the CAG are attacked.
The CRS report thus draws the attention of Congress members to the post-2002 positive image of Modi as well as to the lingering allegations about his negative role in 2002. Modi is seen as a positively evolving leader with a negative historical background. Unless he is able to rid himself of the negative memories evoked by the ant-Muslim riots of 2002, any exercise mounted by his followers and party to rehabilitate his image abroad will be problematic.
In the short and medium terms, the CRS report could have two fall-outs in respect of US policy. Firstly, a dilution of the decision of the US State Department in 2005 not to issue a visa to Modi and, secondly, a greater readiness on the part of the US diplomats posted in India to interact with him, his ministers and officials. Some of the WikiLeaks documents already indicated a developing view in the State Department that the policy of avoidance of interactions with them (Team Modi) could prove inadvisable. This view is likely to be strengthened in the months to come and before the next elections. Whether the US likes Modi or not, he is there to stay. Better take cognisance of him.
The second development is the order passed by the Supreme Court of India in a case in which it had been monitoring investigation by a Special Investigation Team (SIT) into allegations in a petition regarding Modi’s role in the 2002 riots. The petition alleges willful inaction by the administration headed by Modi. The SIT investigation has not been able to find any substantive evidence in support of the allegations. At the same time, non-Governmental activists carrying on a decade-long campaign against Modi on this issue have not been able to produce any concrete evidence in proof of their allegations. Thus, Modi stands in a position where he can neither be proved guilty or established to be innocent.
The Supreme Court has decided to discontinue the monitoring of the investigation in view of the completion of it and has referred the results of the investigation made so far to a trial court for further action as warranted in accordance with the law. It is doubtful whether the court will be able to come to definitive conclusions. The claims made by the supporters of Modi and his party that he has been vindicated are premature.
If Modi wants to pursue his Prime Ministerial aspirations, the only option available to him is to make public and sincere amends to the victims of the anti-Muslim riots and persuade them to forget and forgive. His continuing reluctance to do so is evident from his subsequent comments and actions. He and his supporters seem to believe that if they continue to stonewall the allegations against him, public memory would fade away. This may not happen as we had seen in the case of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhi under the rule of the Congress.
With celestial omens clearly in his favour, the Gujarat Chief Minister recently sat on a three-day fast, which was viewed by many as an attempt to improve his hardline image, especially among the minorities (Muslims). Buoyed by the pleasing circumstances, a visibly delighted Modi hoped that his fast named "Sadbhavana Mission" will bring peace, harmony and unity in his state.
However, bringing peace and prosperity alone in Gujarat is not Modi’s only agenda as he is clearly preparing himself for a larger role in the national politics. However, his possible ascension to the throne of Prime Minister would be bumpy and full of obstacles because of the controversies shadowing him.
The Gandhi scion attempted to parachute himself onto the summit, but landed in a ditch!
If you compare Rahul Gandhi with Narendra Modi then what will you compare except that Rahul occasionally goes to Uttar Pradesh to spend few nights with the downtrodden and sometimes to Maharashtra to enquire welfare of the farmers who have been shot dead for raising their voice against land grabbing by illegal means. What other credentials he has besides being that he is the son of Sonia Gandhi. When there are burning issues, he does not participate in them. When Anna Hazare agitation was going on in Delhi, he was probably resting in Delhi and when there was bomb blast in Delhi, he just woke up from his slumber and dashed to the hospital to enquire about the well being of Common Man. It is another fact that common man did not share their miseries with the Prince Charming and he has to take hasty retreat from the hospital. Rahul Gandhi ought to know, at least now, that common man wants action and intent to do something for the countrymen and just by shedding crocodiles tears, you cannot earn sympathy and love of masses.
For Modi to come on to the national centre stage, he will have to first and foremost get the RSS nod and later the support of the allies. He will have to be picked from a field which has Nitish Kumar, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari besides L.K.Advani and Murali Manohar Joshi. His supporters feel that Modi was the only leader in the BJP stable who can get votes on the hindutva plank even outside the Saffron sphere of influence. He could propel BJP to its highest tally in the Lok Sabha and more than182, the number the party achieved under Atal Behari Vajpayee, its tallest leader.
“It is now a given truth that after the Gujarat elections next year Modi will come to national politics and the first thing he will do is clean up the garbage that has collected at the top in the BJP.”
Congress Leadership is worried. What worries them is not just Modi’s clear ability to give Rahul Gandhi a run for his money but that, unlike the Congress heir-apparent, Modi would come to the 2014 fight with a proven administrative record. His worst critics concede that Gujarat has gone to new heights of prosperity under Modi and, remarkably, this has happened without a whiff of corruption.
After the 2002 violence he locked up the worst elements in the Bajrang Dal and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. And, it has been years since we heard hate speeches from the likes of Praveen Togadia but the ordinary Gujarati Hindu who participated in massacring Muslims has continued to see Modi as a Hindu hero for the worst reasons. It is this image that Modi seems to be trying to change because whether he becomes the BJP’s candidate for prime minister in 2014 or not he knows that it is no longer in his interests to have a sectarian image.
In a LensOnNews monthly tracking poll, many feel that this development clears the way for Modi to enter national-level politics. The agency’s tracking poll asked questions on the ‘Preferred Prime Minister’– with Manmohan Singh, Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi matched up one-for-one against each other.
Their poll finds that Narendra Modi scores big as the preferred PM over both Manmohan and Rahul. Fifty-six percent of respondents say they prefer Modi over Manmohan (an increase of 4 points over August), while the Modi-Rahul match-up is 60% to 25% in favour of Modi. Modi has gained 9 points over the August figure, while Rahul has dropped by as much as 10 points. Going forward, with the favourable Supreme Court verdict behind him, Modi will be in a position to consolidate his already strong standing among voters.
Evidently, the arrogant and insensitive handling of the Anna Hazare agitation against corruption by the UPA government has affected the popular standing of both Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi.
The surprising finding is that, while 45% respondents still prefer Rahul over Manmohan (33%), Manmohan has improved his ratings by 2 points in the match-up against Rahul over the early August figures.
The precipitous fall in Rahul Gandhi’s numbers certainly has much to do with his dramatic intervention during zero hour in the Lok Sabha just before the debate on the Jan Lokpal bill, a gambit which ultimately turned out to be a fizzle. Congress’s vaunted ‘youth icon’ said he wanted to ‘elevate’ the discussion and proposed that Lokpal should have the status of a constitutional body like the Election Commission and the CAG. He expected that his proposal would be a ‘game changer’, but there were no takers for it. As Kiran Bedi commented, one should first climb a hill before attempting to climb Mount Everest. The Gandhi scion attempted to parachute himself onto the summit, but landed in a ditch!
USA or India, Think Tank will not make any difference
Ever since the US think tank expressed the view that Narendra Modi, the controversial Gujarat chief minister could be the BJP’s choice for Prime Ministership in the next Parliamentary elections, all newspapers and TV channels have been speculating whether it will be Modi Vs Rahul in 2014 (or earlier).
What amazes one is, how a Think Tank’s perception can be taken so seriously by the media as both the respective parties, the Congress and the BJP have yet to decide whom to project for the PM’s position during the next round. Many political pundits had even in 2009 thought that after the Congress/UPA win, Manmohan Singh will make way for Rahul to take over the Prime Minister’s position. They seemed to forget that unlike 2004, Manmohan Singh was projected as the PM candidate by the UPA/Congress and therefore the mandate in 2009 was as much for the party and its allies as it was for Singh. And therefore it would not have been an easy task to replace him with Rahul who despite being a Gandhi has many hurdles to cross before he can even think of assuming the top position. The hurdles are within his own party where a section, which enjoys power, may not easily let it go. This section realizes that there is no guarantee in politics that after a change of leadership, status quo will remain at every level. The second obstacle could be from allies who will spell out their positions at an appropriate time. As things stand today, Manmohan Singh is the biggest cementing force within the UPA despite a lot of inner contradictions and the fragile nature of the party and the alliance. Any attempt to move him or replace him could lead to an intense power struggle and I shall not be surprised if it even results in the fall of the government.
There are too many contenders for Manmohan Singh’s position within the UPA and this is where the danger lies. Not necessary, that parties should not look beyond their present leaders but things have to be handled deftly and without incurring damage of any kind. The scams and scandals have left the Congress vulnerable and the credibility of its government is at its lowest. It is also not to suggest that Manmohan Singh is going to be the permanent PM candidate of the UPA as long as he lives but any attempt to dislodge him is not going to be easy and will not be without inherent dangers. In this context, political pundits can only speculate who the Congress leader of the future is. And therefore Rahul Gandhi’s name is spoken about as there is no doubt in anybody’s mind that he will certainly succeed his mother as the next Congress president. And if the party does well in the next elections, he will certainly be an automatic choice for the PM’s position. Rahul, himself will feel more comfortable if Congress was to come to power on its own and be not dependent on any other political party. But this is an era of coalitions and it is not easy to achieve a single party majority. Even if the change has to come in 2014 then right candidate should be in place and even if Congress/UPA even think of installing Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate then that will be Himalayan blunder for the party.
Secondly, as the world is witnessing another slowdown and the IMF predicting that another 4.5 crore of people across the world will be pushed to poverty, it’s high time for the govt of our country to act accordingly. Our govt should take actions to take care of price hike. Though it’s expected to have a lower GDP growth of 7.8% compared to that of the predicted 8.2%, only proper steps taken by the govt can tackle the problem and lead country back to the path of development. It’s also expected to have lesser foreign investment flowing in to the country in coming years; the govt has to find out other ways to constantly maintain the GDP growth. While all these measures are to be taken, it should again be kept in mind that the common man should find his living and its them who are going to bring the govt back to power again in 2014.
These are all in the realm of speculation and let us wait for the elections to be announced to really know as to between whom the final contest will be. But interesting times are here. One thing is certain that the next Prime Minister of the country will be decided by the people of this country and not by any Think Tank in India or abroad.
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